The average area of glaciers in western China might shrink by 27 per cent by 2050 because of global warming, according to a report released at the recent UN climate talks in Tianjin. Ice volumes are expected to decrease substantially and runoff water to rivers fall sharply, thereby posing a threat to crop production and worsening droughts.

Climate change could reduce river runoff by 20-40 per cent in the northwest provinces and autonomous regions of Ningxia, Gansu, Qinghai and Xinjiang. Glaciers are a common feature in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, the Pamir Plateau and the Himalayas.

According to the report, extreme drought affects 697,000 sq km of China and drought affects 2.98m sq km, amounting to a combined 38.3 per cent of the country’s land area. A 4°C rise in temperature would increase the drought-affected area by 843,000 sq km.

Glacier shrinkage would also threaten agricultural output. The report warned that overall crop production capacity would drop 5-10 per cent by 2030 due to global warming, especially in wheat, rice and corn, and the impact would worsen after 2050.

The report was jointly released by organisations including the Institute of Environment and Social and Sustainable Development in Agriculture and the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.